![]() Brooks was replaced at the top of most polls by Mike Durant, a wealthy businessman famed as a survivor of the Somalia firefight that inspired the book and movie Black Hawk Down. The former president endorsed Brooks only to drop him on absurd accusations of wokeness as he plunged in the polls. The Republican Primary: The initial front-runner for the GOP nomination to succeed 86-year-old Senator Richard Shelby was Congressman Mo Brooks, who led the charge in Congress to execute Trump’s election coup. The General Election: The Oz-Fetterman contest should be one of the most highly competitive 2022 races, as Pennsylvania narrowly went for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020. The Democrats: Eccentric progressive Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman easily defeated Congressman Conor Lamb and State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, despite Fetterman suffering a stroke and then having a pacemaker installed on primary day. On Election Night, Oz and McCormick were virtually tied, but with a recount underway McCormick conceded, making Oz the nominee. There was a late surge of support for former Fox News gabber Kathy Barnette who was endorsed by gubernatorial front-runner Doug Mastriano. The TV doctor battled former hedge-fund executive David McCormick, with each man accusing the other of ideological heresy and affection for China. Trump upended the race when he endorsed Mehmet Oz. The Republican Primary: Senator Pat Toomey’s retirement sparked a highly competitive, multi-candidate GOP primary to succeed him. This guide, which we’ll update throughout the cycle, will help you track all the crucial races, primary upsets, and campaign drama - both Donald Trump–fueled and naturally occurring - from now through Election Day on November 8. Senate up for reelection and 36 states holding gubernatorial contests, there’s a lot to keep track of. Democrats may be able to hold onto the Senate thanks to a favorable landscape, though the size of the likely Republican “wave” will make a lot of difference up and down the ballot. The odds are high that Republicans will take the House and make some state-level gains. Typically the president’s party loses ground in midterms, particularly if he’s as unpopular as Joe Biden and the economy is troubled. Senate and House, along with the balance of power in many states holding legislative and gubernatorial contests. The 2022 midterms will determine whether Democrats retain or lose their fragile control over the U.S. ![]() Appreciate it, Rick.The primaries are now in full swing, with 17 states holding elections this month to nominate candidates for November. Thanks for giving us that early look here. It's going to be a small group of swing voters in those three or four states that are going to decide who the next president is. But for the moment, they are saying it's probably going to be the same thing over again. So basically, this forecast and this could change. And more than that, Biden won all three of those states but he won each state by less than 1% of the vote in those three states, and that's what gave him the majority of electoral votes. And if you take three of those states, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, those are the states that decided the 2020 election. ![]() And they're saying that the toss up states that are going to decide the election are Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. That's whether we have Biden versus Trump round two or two completely different candidates.īut this is the Cook Political Report, they're an important forecaster. So it looks as if these forecasts that are starting to come in are basically saying it's going to be sort of a replay of 2020 at least in terms of the states and the portion of voters inside those states that determine the election. RICK NEWMAN: Well, pay attention to those 56 votes, those are the toss up votes. ![]()
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